Terror attacks in Canada warn of things to come: Column

Today's terrorist incident in Canada should come as no surprise. Both the Canadian government and jihadists have been talking for weeks about a potential attack.

The Ottawa shooter has been identified as Michael Zehef-Bibeau, reportedly a Canadian of Algerian descent whose passport had recently been seized when he was designated a "high risk traveler."

He was shot down by sergeant-at-arms Kevin Vickers while mounting an attack inside the Canadian Parliament building. Zehef-Bibeau killed Cpl. Nathan Cirillo, shot down near the War Memorial in Ottawa.

Zehef-Bibeau's motives have not been confirmed, but it is reasonable to assume they are connected to the war against the Islamic State. On October 7, the Canadian government authorized a six month commitment to the U.S.-led air offensive against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. This move prompted a Canadian-born Muslim convert fighting with Islamic State forces to urge attacks on Canada since it is "permissible to retaliate in a like manner." This followed a threat in September from Islamic State spokesman Abu Mohammed Adnani that included Canada on a list of approved target countries, also including the United States.

The day after Canada joined the war against the IS, Public Safety Minister Steven Blaney reported that the government was watching about 80 people who had returned to the country from overseas and were suspected of having terrorist ties. NBC news reported that Canadian officials and the FBI had picked up information regarding jihadist discussions of "knife and gun" attacks inside Canada. Last Friday, Canada elevated its terrorism threat level for the first time in four years in response to "increased chatter" from overseas terrorists concerning a potential domestic attack.

But home grown radicals also pose a threat. On Monday, Martin Couture Rouleau ran down two soldiers with his car in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, southeast of Montreal, killing one. Rouleau, who had changed his Facebook name to "Ahmad," was a radicalized convert to Islam who openly posted jihadist messages in social media. Like Zehef-Bibeau, his passport had been withdrawn, in his case in July when he attempted to travel to Turkey, purportedly to join the fighting in Syria. He had been under close watch since then. Rouleau fled the scene of the attack, overturned his car during the pursuit, and was shot by police after emerging from his wrecked vehicle with a long knife. Rouleau had told a 911 operator he was "acting in the name of Allah."

Rouleau and Zehef-Bibeau's apparent lone wolf actions, or "individual jihad", are the kind of attacks that al Qaeda and other terror groups have recently been encouraging. They are inexpensive, harder to detect and disrupt, and chillingly effective. It remains to be seen whether Wednesday's attack was part of a coordinated, longer term plan, or a spur of the moment operation, perhaps seeking revenge for Rouleau's death two days earlier. However both of this week's incidents demonstrate the global reach of radical extremism and could encourage future small-scale attacks.

James S. Robbins, author ofThe Real Custer: From Boy General to Tragic Hero, is a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors.

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