Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives are setting the table to extend Ontario’s pandemic “stay-at-home” order for another two weeks, until June 2.
“We need to stay the course for right now,” Health Minister Christine Elliott said Monday as the province expanded vaccine availability to some segments of the population, including people over 40 outside of designated hot spots starting later this week.
Ford declared a state of emergency on April 16, which curbed activities like golf, tennis and basketball, in a bid to keep people from going out and spreading COVID-19.
While the current emergency declaration is scheduled to expire May 19 — and the number of daily new COVID-19 cases is declining — hospital intensive care units are still near record occupancy levels with 828 COVID-19 patients, including 547 on ventilators.
A key benchmark for lifting the stay-at-home order will be getting new daily infections “well below 1,000” because the variants of concern now dominating Ontario are so much more contagious, said chief medical officer of health Dr. David Williams.
“I think that is achievable,” Williams told a news conference Monday afternoon. “The big thing we have is vaccination.”
But it will take time to reach that target below 1,000, which has been elusive for more than six months.
Ontario’s seven-day moving average of new daily cases was just over 3,000 on Monday — and new cases have not been consistently below 1,000 a day since October, before the arrival of variants that sent daily new infections soaring to an average of more than 4,300 just three weeks ago.
Williams said ICU occupancy levels must also be much lower so that hundreds of critically ill COVID-19 patients who were transferred from Toronto to hospitals in other Ontario cities — a move made necessary because of the huge influx of GTA cases — can be returned and receive treatment closer to their families.
As well, intensive care numbers must be lowered dramatically so hospitals can resume more normal functions, such as about 11,000 cancelled non-emergency surgeries each week.
“We have a ways to go,” Williams added.
Last week, MPPs from all parties unanimously endorsed Solicitor General Sylvia Jones’s motion that the state of emergency be extended for 28 days, to June 2.
That legislative hurdle clears the way for Ford’s cabinet to soon rubber-stamp an extension of the stay-at-home order, pushing it past the May 24 Victoria Day long weekend.
Beyond golfers, it would be a tough pill to swallow for restaurateurs, who had hoped patios would be permitted to reopen.
“We’re looking at things daily. We’re going to have to see our numbers come down” said Elliott, pointing to the 2,716 new cases reported from Sunday’s low testing levels of 27,175 people and a positivity rate of 9.1 per cent.
“It’s still too high. We need to see them go down more before we can change the stay-at-home order,” the minister warned.
Ontario has averaged 30 deaths daily from COVID-19 over the past week.
As revealed by the Star on Friday, there is much discussion among Tory MPPs about the wisdom of keeping the prohibition on outdoor sports like golf and tennis.
“People are losing it,” confided one PC member on Sunday, speaking confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations.
“We’re hearing from supporters who say they’d be willing to not golf if they thought it would help, and from others who say, ‘Take us off your donor lists,’” the MPP said.
Williams said health officials continue to discuss how outdoor activities could resume “in a safe way,” voicing concern about people letting down their guard and socializing too closely.
An unscientific online poll on the Star’s website found 82.5 per cent of people who voted said golf courses should be allowed to open because “being outdoors is safe.”
Just 10.5 per cent of participants said the government shouldn’t reopen golf courses before schools and seven per cent said they should remain shut because of the risks of spreading COVID-19.
But previous public-opinion polling has shown strong support for lockdown measures — and the province’s science table of expert advisers has urged people to remain home.
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath said it’s Ford’s fault “we’re stuck in this stay at home order” after easing second wave restrictions in February despite science table warnings more contagious variants would soon dominate and could take off exponentially, creating a third wave.
“We still need to do our part,” said Horwath, whose party supported Jones’s motion last Tuesday to give the government the authority to extend the emergency.
“The government should have done its part ... with paid sick days for every worker ... and by closing non-essential workplaces,” she added, calling the new provincial three-day sick pay plan inadequate.
Also Monday, the government said “high-risk” health-care workers, dialysis patients and Indigenous people would learn this week about plans to give them second COVID-19 vaccinations sooner than the current four-month delay. That staggering of shots for most Ontarians is part of the strategy to get first doses into as many people as possible.
Starting Thursday, people aged 40 and older in communities that are not designated hot spots will be able to book their shots.
That’s in addition to people with high-risk health conditions, such as dementia and those who cannot work from home, like supermarket staff, who can begin booking shots Tuesday.
Elliott also reiterated the province is still looking at whether people who received an AstraZeneca shot for their first dose could receive Pfizer or Moderna for their second.
Robert Benzie is the Star’s Queen’s Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie
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