Presidential Elections 1976 vs. 2016 Trending of margins in 40 years.More
Presidential Elections 1976 vs. 2016
Trending of margins in 40 years.
Trending of margins in 40 years.
philosopher
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Interesting! The polls did not reflect reality in the last election. I suspect the number crunchers didn't learn their lesson and are repeating the same mistakes.
On the present polls Biden has 8 to 12 point leads over Trump. How representative is that to reality? My suspicion is it does not reflect the real world b/c the sampling spectrum is not politically and demographically diverse enough to …More
Interesting! The polls did not reflect reality in the last election. I suspect the number crunchers didn't learn their lesson and are repeating the same mistakes.
On the present polls Biden has 8 to 12 point leads over Trump. How representative is that to reality? My suspicion is it does not reflect the real world b/c the sampling spectrum is not politically and demographically diverse enough to determine a higher degree of probability. It may indicate a tight and close election but I don't think we can count Trump out. I might be wrong, but if I were Trump I would start acting as if we were really trailing dementia Joe.
On the present polls Biden has 8 to 12 point leads over Trump. How representative is that to reality? My suspicion is it does not reflect the real world b/c the sampling spectrum is not politically and demographically diverse enough to determine a higher degree of probability. It may indicate a tight and close election but I don't think we can count Trump out. I might be wrong, but if I were Trump I would start acting as if we were really trailing dementia Joe.
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@philosopher In 2016 the serious pollsters had Clinton ahead by 3% (average at .538.com), so it was a miss of only 1%. Yet, the statewide OpinionPolls in MI, WI, PA were trash. (Coming from the country of Jörg Haider i was alarmed, when i heard of Trump activating the RustBelt-WWC and looked every day at the few polls for the MidWest-states - but they didn't detect any surge!)
The unimpressive field …More
@philosopher In 2016 the serious pollsters had Clinton ahead by 3% (average at .538.com), so it was a miss of only 1%. Yet, the statewide OpinionPolls in MI, WI, PA were trash. (Coming from the country of Jörg Haider i was alarmed, when i heard of Trump activating the RustBelt-WWC and looked every day at the few polls for the MidWest-states - but they didn't detect any surge!)
The unimpressive field of Democratic contenders and the election of our fine "catholic" brother let me assume, that Trump would easily win by making "Sleepy Joe" another Kerry. But Trump has for 4 years had constantly only 40% behind him and 50% against him (they have never given him a chance - the mentality of the USA is clearly changing!); and present polling is catastrophically bad (also for the Senate-races a la AZ, IA aso.), the numbers among the elderly deeply embarassing and neither Corona nor the BLM-riots have improved the situation (so far). Presently even Your TX is polled as a TossUp (and MI, WI, PA, AZ, NC, FL, GA are all gone)!
Trump will have to hope, that the virus-OutBreak won't be too harsh (especially in his areas), that the people will blame the Dem.-gov.s for the LockDown-costs&UnEmployment and trust him to rebuild the economy; and that the public opinion will turn against the riots (or have forgotten BLM in November; at least MN should shift even more to the right this time). Not impossible, but lots of ifs.
From a strategical point of view a loss of Trump might be not the worst - 4 years Biden (as another Carter) during a recession would probably damage the Dem. a lot and reenergize the GOP; while the less stupid elements of the BernieBros. are doubtlessly hoping, that after 2 failures of the moderate wing against Trump they could take over the party and storm into the White House in 2024 (with, perhaps, AOC?).
The unimpressive field of Democratic contenders and the election of our fine "catholic" brother let me assume, that Trump would easily win by making "Sleepy Joe" another Kerry. But Trump has for 4 years had constantly only 40% behind him and 50% against him (they have never given him a chance - the mentality of the USA is clearly changing!); and present polling is catastrophically bad (also for the Senate-races a la AZ, IA aso.), the numbers among the elderly deeply embarassing and neither Corona nor the BLM-riots have improved the situation (so far). Presently even Your TX is polled as a TossUp (and MI, WI, PA, AZ, NC, FL, GA are all gone)!
Trump will have to hope, that the virus-OutBreak won't be too harsh (especially in his areas), that the people will blame the Dem.-gov.s for the LockDown-costs&UnEmployment and trust him to rebuild the economy; and that the public opinion will turn against the riots (or have forgotten BLM in November; at least MN should shift even more to the right this time). Not impossible, but lots of ifs.
From a strategical point of view a loss of Trump might be not the worst - 4 years Biden (as another Carter) during a recession would probably damage the Dem. a lot and reenergize the GOP; while the less stupid elements of the BernieBros. are doubtlessly hoping, that after 2 failures of the moderate wing against Trump they could take over the party and storm into the White House in 2024 (with, perhaps, AOC?).
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Yes, you are probably right. It doesn't look good for the Trump camp. If Biden wins most people know he is in the pre-stages of Alzheimer's, so they are not voting for him but against Trump. I think your point is good on remaining hopeful in the face of a loss. The Dems will be like a wet blanket over the economy, just as it started to roar back, so it will be difficult to play the blame game. …More
Yes, you are probably right. It doesn't look good for the Trump camp. If Biden wins most people know he is in the pre-stages of Alzheimer's, so they are not voting for him but against Trump. I think your point is good on remaining hopeful in the face of a loss. The Dems will be like a wet blanket over the economy, just as it started to roar back, so it will be difficult to play the blame game. Untraditional
Trump will not as previous presidents respect the new one and remain silent. He will hound them, as the former adolescent in chief to no end with twitter storms of "see i told you they would do that and you wouldn't like it," as well as his usual social media raucous. The Dems won't be able to get rid of him. This will give conservatives time to regroup and rebuild on perennial principles and support a more solid statesman type of candidate who can clean up the mess the Dems will most certainly make and win in 2024. If Trump manages to win, conservatives will definately loose in 2024.
I leave all to Providence.
Trump will not as previous presidents respect the new one and remain silent. He will hound them, as the former adolescent in chief to no end with twitter storms of "see i told you they would do that and you wouldn't like it," as well as his usual social media raucous. The Dems won't be able to get rid of him. This will give conservatives time to regroup and rebuild on perennial principles and support a more solid statesman type of candidate who can clean up the mess the Dems will most certainly make and win in 2024. If Trump manages to win, conservatives will definately loose in 2024.
I leave all to Providence.