What will the Church be like after Francis?
Has the accession of Francis to the Throne of Peter really and deeply changed things? At close examination, it seems that this Pontificate is much less innovative that one would have thought when it began.
A Pontificate that is less innovative than it was first thought
The multiple "gestures" (not living in the papal apartments, explicit simplicity) show themselves to be without major consequences for the papal institution. As for surprising declarations amidst small sentences on matters which are media-sensitive, they do not seem to have been followed by institutional or magisterial effects. On the crucial area of episcopal and cardinalatial nominations, there are some that are extremely good, others that are extremely lousy, exactly as it happened in the previous pontificate -- the general trend of the episcopates still pointing towards a generally moderate line.
The famous reform of the Curia will necessarily show itself to be very disappointing for those who imagined a Vatican II-style earthquake: it will be limited to the fusion of a certain number of dicasteries, to the creation of a few others, with a reaffirmation of collegiality -- but with the background of a personalization of papal power greater than ever. As Sandro Magister remarked in his blog Chiesa, despite the violent attacks against the Curia and its personnel at the time of the last Conclave, the main heads of dicasteries are certain to remain in place. In fact, the Church does not have anymore either the capability, or the human reserves, to accomplish an upheaval similar to the one of the Council.
In sum, the new pope seems to have believed that he had the key for the fulfillment of Vatican II thanks to a charism of "return to the Gospel", but the realities of the crisis are stubborn: just examine the recent ordinations for Rome, with only 2 priests for the diocese: no Francis effect in this domain, the most important one for the future of the Church (admittedly, one that demands some time, but no measurable effect is noticeable in other areas, either).
What about after this pontificate?
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