New: Vaccine Risk vs. Disease Risk

New: Vaccine Risk vs. Disease Risk
The Vaccine Math Nobody Added Up—Until Now
Imagine you’re a parent considering the CDC’s vaccine schedule: 43 shots with somewhere around 63 doses of vaccine your child is supposed to get by age 18—measles, flu, Covid, the works. You’ve heard the pitch: vaccines save lives, protect the herd, keep diseases in check. But you may naturally wonder:
Here’s the catch—no one’s ever put out a full, public breakdown of those cumulative odds, assuming vaccines even work as advertised. (Spoiler: they don’t always—Covid shots don’t stop infection or spread, some vaccinated people still catch measles, mumps, and flu today, and all of the last cases of polio in the US were caused by the vaccine.)
Enter Grok, an AI from xAI, which I asked to crunch the numbers. Grok is imperfect, and yet it can still provide us a window and the best idea we, as outsiders, can get to arrive at ballpark numbers and some insight into a vexing controversy.
On paper, using publicly …