War in #Lebanon from a real #Israeli viewpoint

A thread by an #Israeli with deep knowledge about the #Israeli army and it's movement.

This thread talks about the ongoing preparations and the future ones for a war in #Lebanon and what are the possible available options.

By: Gaza War Tracker on X

“Most Moral Army In The World”

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As is well-known, #Israel intends to invade Southern #Lebanon around August this year (+/- 1 month) in order to take over all territory up to the Litani river and stop Hezbullah's rocket attacks into the North of the country.

This invasion will likely consist of 12 brigades structured in 3 divisions:

146th Division:
- 205th Reserve Armored Brigade*
- Carmeli Reserve Brigade
- 226th Reserve Brigade*
- 228th Reserve Brigade*

36th Armored Division:
- 188th Armored Brigade**
- Golani Brigade**
- Kiryati Reserve Armored Brigade
- Etzioni Reserve Brigade**

98th Division:
- 7th Armored Brigade
- 35th Brigade
- Commando Brigade
- 551st Reserve Brigade**

* Has completed exercises preparing it for the invasion of #Lebanon, this brigade was selected by Command to be specifically saved up for the invasion

** Has completed exercises preparing it for the invasion of #Lebanon

“Most Moral Army In The World”

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As you can see, most of them have already been prepared for the invasion while they were deployed on the northern border, but only 3 of them are currently in position:

551st Brigade is under the 146th Division in the Western Galilee

36th and 188th Brigades have been taken apart and all their battalions were given to the 3 territorial brigades guarding the #Lebanese border.

Total amount of combat soldiers = ~18k, around twice as many as entered #Lebanon in 2006.

[Photo of #Israeli soldiers in #Lebanon in 2006]

“Most Moral Army In The World”

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War in #Lebanon is not currently imminent, because most of the required brigades are elsewhere.

7th, 35th and Commando Brigades are busy in and around #Gaza, and have neither been moved north yet nor been prepared for the invasion.

Carmeli Brigade is currently in Netzarim, but is expected to move north to replace 551 in the next few days. (Carmeli itself will be replaced by Alexandroni in Netzarim)

205, 226, 228, Kiryati and Etzioni aren’t mobilized.

I believe that it‘s not likely #Lebanon will be invaded in the next 6 weeks, because that’s the minimum amount of time it will take to move everything north.

I think it will be in August.

“Most Moral Army In The World”

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The #IDF has a short time to operate in #Lebanon or lose.

Once the invasion starts however, in my assessment, the #IDF have to complete all objectives within less than 3 months (ideally within 50 days) or they are forced to withdraw.

This is because 60% of the invasion force has to be dismissed and demobilized once 3 months pass since they’re reservists, and it’s not possible to continue without them (the #IDF simply don’t have enough regular forces by themselves, and can’t call up endless amounts of reservists to continue on regardless).

In #Gaza, reserve brigades failed to stay operational beyond 65 days without rotation.

If the #IDF manage to take the Litani line before this happens the war is won.

How does the #Israeli army view the future?

36th Division will occupy Southern #Lebanon, 162nd Division will occupy Netzarim and Philadelphi, and 98th Division will be used in raids into #Gaza for the next 3 years.

“Most Moral Army In The World”

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What exactly will happen and what is the non-delusional reality?

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the victorious Hezbullah, said a few years ago the below, foreshadowing:

"Your divisions will be destroyed, your brigades will be destroyed, your battalions will be dispersed, your tanks will be demolished, all this live on TV.

I promise you again, you will watch a live broadcast of the destruction of #Israeli tanks, divisions and brigades if they enter southern #Lebanon."

“Most Moral Army In The World”