Источники: Решение о мобилизации в Беларуси принято. Она пройдет под видом проверки боеспособности
Belarusian media: Belarus began covert mobilization 'to man up existing combat units'
Nasha Niva/Belarus: Lukashenko has started covert mobilisation, "It will be carried out under the guise of a test of combat capability", "the rural population will be mobilised first".
13.10.22
The independent Belarusian newspaper "Nasha Niwa" reports on covert mobilisation measures in Belarus:
Nasha Niva has learnt that Alexander Lukashenko has taken a decision in principle to hold a hidden mobilization in Belarus to replenish combat units. It will be carried out under the guise of a combat readiness test. In the first stage it will not involve major cities; the rural population will be mobilized in the first place. The recruitment of combat units makes an escalation scenario on the border between Belarus and Ukraine probable.
As several unconnected sources told Nasha Niva, Belarus has decided to mobilize. We do not yet know how many people are planned to be mobilized.
Alexander Lukashenko decided not to declare the mobilization publicly. This was done in view of the consequences of such a decision in Russia. "Hidden mobilization" will take place under the guise of checking the combat readiness of units and summoning persons liable for military service to a training camp, which is popularly known as "recruitment to the partisans".
The purpose of the mobilisation would be judged by knowing the figure of those selected."Recruitment of up to 2,000 people would speak about the replenishment of certain units for narrow combat tasks, for example, artillery," an officer of the Armed Forces of Belarus told "Nasha Niva.
"The alarm would be sounded if the figure of mobilized men exceeds five thousand. This will mean the creation of the strike force in some direction. If it's over 10 thousand, then there will be several groupings," adds the interlocutor.
"Nasha Niva" is well aware that so far only inhabitants of small districts of Belarus have received summonses. The first wave of "hidden mobilization" does not affect the big cities yet.
"The biggest focus is on the military professions which are in short supply in the Russian army," knowledgeable sources tell us.
One source says that drivers are being called up for "training camps". Another says "cooks, drivers, technical and logistics staff". It may be a matter of recruiting in the first phase those support personnel who will be able to provide training for the mobilisers themselves and the equipment for them.
"From October 12 to November 12, the military commissariats are carrying out reconciliation of registration data with the local administrative and executive bodies and enterprises," the military commissariats are already speaking publicly on the air of propaganda media. Before such verifications were not carried out all at once.
Explanation of why mobilization was needed, read here: Sources in the army explained if Lukashenko could send troops to Ukraine
Publicly, Alexander Lukashenko, and the generals behind him, claim that Belarus will only enter the war if its territory is attacked. At the same time, propaganda programs security officials and the population that such an attack from the Ukrainian side is bound to take place, as the Ukrainian authorities are allegedly pushed to it by the West.
At the same time, Alexander Lukashenko said that "more than a thousand" Russian soldiers would arrive in Belarus and acknowledged Belarus' participation in a "special military operation," which makes our country a legitimate target for the entrenched Ukrainian army.
Earlier, "NN" sources reported that a significant number of Russian mobilized troops are expected to arrive at the Belarusian training grounds.
"According to my information, preparations are underway to receive the Russian mobilized at Belarusian training ranges, training centres and military units. We have both places for training and instructors. Perhaps, Russia demands from Lukashenko to train part of the mobilized Russian military in Belarus and to have it carried out by the Belarusian security services," one of our interlocutors earlier suggested.
Other interlocutors draw attention to strikes from the airspace of Belarus and the attempt to seize Kiev and northern Ukraine in February 2022, which was carried out from the territory of our country.
"The Ukrainians have every reason not to allow a second march on Kiev, which, judging by indirect signs, may now be in preparation. At the same time, any preventive strike against the Russians in Belarus can be interpreted as an attack on Belarus," says our interlocutor.
Before the Russian attack, Alexander Lukashenko predicted that the war would end with the victory of the Russians "in three or four days". Russia's failure at the first stage of the war came as a surprise to Lukashenko's supporters. Minsk's propaganda continued to talk about the inevitability of Russian victory and covered events in the same spirit as the Russian officialdom. Lukashenko himself repeatedly said that "Russia cannot lose. And Belarusian intelligence apparently did not expect the Ukrainians to launch a counteroffensive in the south either.
Minsk still believes that the victory will be for the "allied state of Belarus and Russia". Head of the State Security Committee Ivan Tertel in his recent speech to the employees of BelAZ even specified the date for the beginning of the "breakthrough" - November 2022. If covert mobilization starts now, it will be over by mid-November.